Now Trending in Transportation – Part 1 of 3 – Carrier Capacity and Costs
Uncertainty with a glimpse of new stability sums up the view ahead. It’s been a shippers’ market for three years running, but there are signs that adjustments to rates and capacity are coming. And of course there are big things on the table that could tip the balance a lot or a little depending on how events play out.
On the table as we enter 2026 are: high inflation and high borrowing rates. Failing carriers and regulatory enforcement campaigns that could take significant capacity out of the market. The specters of tariff shifts, geopolitical disruptions, and major weather events remain very real threats to supply chains.
At the same time, transportation and freight markets are transforming in real-time as technology evolves, ops costs rise, service standards intensify, and sustainability requirements simmer.
In this context, three transportation trends loom over 2026.
1. The shippers’ market swings toward carriers
Signs that the shippers market of the last three years is shifting are starting to show. Slight rate increases are forecast and moves in the market support that. Depending on the magnitude of the moves, those slight increases could become major.
Lingering low freight rates and rising operational costs of trucking continue to force carriers to exit. Large carriers filing for chapter 11 have been a regular occurrence and their overall number is decreasing dramatically. According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, as of June 2025, there were almost 580,000 active US motor carriers registered with FMCSA. That’s down from 813,844 active carriers registered with the FMCSA in 2022.
Experts view the departures as an evening out after the rush of new carriers entered the market during the COVID-related freight boom. ACT Research describes the current phase as an “extended correction cycle.” ACT ties sustained expected rate increases to “continued fleet contraction and a gradual demand recovery.”
Recent regulatory moves by the FMCSA regarding English language proficiency (ELP) and non-domiciled CDL holders also threaten carrier capacity. By the end of December almost 10,000 drivers had been placed out-of-service for ELP violations and according to the Wall Street Journal, a proposed rule could make 97% of the 200,000 non-domiciled CDL holders ineligible to drive.
Signs point to freight capacity rebalancing; however, “normalization” doesn’t mean a return to old dynamics. As carriers leave the market or align with larger fleets, the remaining transportation providers are becoming more selective about the customers they work with, the lanes they run, and the service they will provide.
With their new leverage, they are prioritizing predictable freight, well-run appointment programs, loyalty, and operational efficiency.
The shipper upshot is to expect tightening capacity on the spot market and for certain lanes. Carriers will be less likely to scramble for undesirable loads and cheap freight than they have been over the past three years. With the upper hand, carriers’ service reliability will depend on how well freight aligns with their networks.
Your best move is to tighten up operations in order to secure capacity and remain a shipper of choice. Tender freight early and strive for accurate forecasts that reduce last-minute shipments. A diverse carrier roster is more important to ensure you always have backup transportation. Update your routing guides to reflect carrier performance and lane strengths. Bench strength is key.
2. A harder focus on cost control and network optimization
Carriers’ costs are under historic pressure heading into 2026. As shippers mind their own mandates to control costs, it’s important to understand truckers’ challenges. They have less flexibility to negotiate and low-cost carriers should be concerned about cutting corners.
According to ATRI’s Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking: 2025 Update, the cost of trucking is at an all-time high at $1.779 per mile, excluding fuel. Insurance rates are a key business concern for truckers. Premiums have risen 36% over the last eight years, ATRI says.
As costs continue to increase, carriers are under pressure to protect margins, savings from rate negotiations will be unreliable. The new cost-saving opportunities exist in network level optimizations. These include strategic positioning of DCs and FCs, load consolidation, route optimization, and improving operational efficiency to control accessorials.
The shipper upshot is that transportation efficiency is becoming a strategic imperative rather than a tactical exercise. Retailers and manufacturers can control costs outside of rates by enhancing the efficiency of their transportation networks and operations.
Your best move is to look closely at mode shifting. Moving from full truckload (FTL) to intermodal is one way to economize. Building shipment density through consolidation and improved order management brings efficiency and savings. Shippers should also look into devising multi-node distribution strategies that shorten hauls.
3. Acceleration of technology and real-time visibility expectations
The capabilities of technology to optimize transportation management mentioned in the last section will soon be standard for shippers and their carriers. Not having the tools will put you at a disadvantage. The same goes for visibility capabilities. B2C and B2B buyers have unyielding expectations for real-time visibility into shipment status, exceptions, and estimated arrival times.
High visibility expectations extend across modes and partners in 2026.
According to McKinsey, companies with low end-to-end supply chain visibility experience inventory inaccuracy rates of up to 20%, leading to a 10–15% hit on service levels and a 15% –30% increase in working capital requirements.
Visibility is the number one priority for transportation IT investment. According to a poll by Supply Chain Brain, 36% of respondents named visibility as the capability that will deliver the greatest value in the next two years. Despite this finding, the poll found that spread sheets and emails are still a key shipment visibility solution used by 37% of respondents.
The shipper upshot is that visibility is no longer a differentiator. It is foundational. 2026 is the year to get ahead of this trend. Attaining real-time tracking of your shipments provides the competitive advantage in operational efficiency and customer service. Working with carriers and freight brokers whose carriers provide real-time tracking is table stakes today. The quality of tracking data and what you do with it are where the opportunities lie ahead.
Your best move is to ensure clean data through trucker compliance of tracking standards and expand tracking through all modes and regions. API-based tracking that integrates transportation management systems (TMS) and warehouse management systems (WMS) is essential to turning visibility into actionable intelligence, including predictive ETA. Shippers should also look to the use of IoT and sensors that expand tracking beyond tractors to trailers and individual shipments.
More transportation trends and tactics to come
Follow this series to dive into:
- The growth of intermodal and rail
- The sustainability reframe
- Shippers’ need for resilience strategy
About the Author
Conrad Winter
Conrad Winter is an independent content and copy writer who writes about transportation and logistics. He began his career as a writer at advertising agencies in Chicago and New York where he wrote copy for International Trucks, Eaton truck components and many other brands across a wide spectrum of product categories. Conrad has written blogs, whitepapers and case studies for a wide range of companies in transportation and logistics and contributed articles to Inbound Logistics, Food Chain Digest and the Transportation Sales and Marketing Association blog.
