October Prime Big Deal Days Sets a “Ho-Hum” Start to Holiday Shopping

Retailers were hoping that the holiday shopping season was set to kick into high gear during Amazon’s October Prime Big Deal Days. However, according to a Forbes article, the tone set was more “ho hum” than merry.

Numerator’s Prime Big Deal Days 2025 live tracker found that consumers were more focused on everyday needs and low prices rather than holiday shopping. Only 23% of shoppers said they used October’s Prime Days to kickstart holiday shopping, and 55% weren’t yet sure what they need or want for the holidays. This is compares to 45% of consumers holiday shopping before November 6^th last year (2024).

Along with reports of sharply declining consumer confidence, October Prime Big Deal Days signals a complex retail season ahead. Emerging peak season trends have found that shoppers are “looking for value while also planning to trim holiday spending.”

Retail brands looking to succeed this peak season will have to use creativity, strategy, and provide an exceptional customer experience that meets both the value customers seek while making the buyer’s journey memorable.

October Prime Big Deal Days recap by the numbers

Prime Big Deal Days 2025 ran two days, October 7-8. Amazon marketed their big sales and top discounts, such as Ring Doorbells, and Echo and Kindle devices, along with Lightening Deals, big in-store grocery savings, discounted artist merch, and many retailer savings.

Despite the abundance of offerings, the participation was more subdued. Some of the most notable numbers from Numerator included:

• October’s average order size dropped 15% from July, down from $53.54 to $45.42 and 44% of orders were for less than $20, compared with 37% in July.
• One reason consumers shopped Prime Big Deal Days were tariffs (48%), likely to get ahead of expected future price increases. However, 29% said they were more cautious due to the current economic climate, and 28% limited their spending because of inflation or cost of living concerns.
• 90% of shoppers were aware of Prime Big Deal Days ahead of time but only 61% of July Prime Day shoppers returned to snag additional deals this October.

The numbers point toward a more unpredictable peak season ahead, requiring retailers to remain nimble and engaged to find opportunity.

Potential retail volatility on the horizon

Last year, the National Retail Federation (NRF), released their holiday spending projections by October 15^th. This year, they don’t plan to publish until November 6^th. The potential volatility of this year’s holiday shopping season is likely the cause.

Many consumers are expecting higher prices, and retailers face more challenges, including:

• Fluctuating consumer demand and spending confidence
• Rising shipping surcharges and carrier constraints
• Labor shortages and higher seasonal staffing costs
• Inventory imbalances from early or delayed demand
• Increased returns volume and fraud risk
• Supply chain disruptions from tariffs or policy changes
• Pressure to meet speed expectations

That said, there are ways for businesses to prepare and mitigate the impact.

Setting up for a successful peak season

Even if peak season and holiday shopping is volatile, retail brands have the potential to succeed using tools and strategies. To prepare, businesses can take the following actions:

Build strategies based on data

Between economic headwinds, shifting trade policies, and cautious consumers, retailers face the perfect storm. The traditional playbook for pricing and promotions is not likely to work. To stay competitive, retailers must look to real-time data, analytics, and customer insights to make fast, informed decisions for pricing marketing, and operations.

Understand changing consumer behavior

It’s important for retailers to remember that while they’re navigating a lot of uncertainty, so are their customers. For example, wanting to stay cautious often equates to selectiveness and trading down, delaying purchases, and focusing on value and essentials. Last year, a customer may have bought a high-end fitness watch for a loved one, but this year simply give the fitness basics, like shoes or equipment. Retailers that listen to their customers and their behavior can adjust pricing, promotions, and product assortment accordingly, placing in a better position to succeed despite tighter budgets.

Use AI to stay agile

Businesses these days are running on leaner teams. However, AI and automation are powerful tools to optimize productivity. In retail, AI-powered pricing and forecasting help retailers navigate volatility more effectively than many manual methods. Businesses can factor in real-time variables like competition, tariffs, inventory, demand patterns, and more. This allows precise adjustments that improve responsiveness while protecting margins. And while human judgement is still an enormous asset, AI is there to augment it.  

Make promotions more targeted

Promotions this peak season can’t be broad or reactive, but rather tailored offers to specific segments. It will be critical to understand which discounts drive conversions by providing the value consumers seek.

Strengthen operations and partnerships

This peak season will require operational flexibility, and partners will be crucial to executing with precision. Whether its handling post-peak season returns or delivering speed, value, and reliability, retailers will only be as good as their providers. Businesses will need to work side by side with strategic partners to improve forecasting, fulfillment, and handle unpredictably demand and rising costs.

The right partnership in unpredictable times

Whether its handling Amazon Prime Day Events or BFCM, in a season defined by fluctuation and volatility, WSI stands as a steady partner for retailers and businesses navigating the unknown. With six decades of experience and a nationwide network of strategic, tech-enabled facilities, WSI helps businesses stay resilient through peak season and beyond. From flexible fulfillment capacity and data-driven optimization to sustainable packaging and specialized handling, WSI delivers the reliability, scalability, and insight retailers need to perform with confidence, no matter how the market shifts.

Contact our team today to learn more.